Journal of New Approaches in Water Engineering and Environment
Scientific Journal

Assessing the effect of climate change on agricultural drought by using of SMDI index in different Irrigation levels

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Fatemeh Hajiabadi 1
Farzad Hassanpour 2
Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh 3
Hossein Hammami 4

1 Expert of Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, University of Birjand and Ph. D. Graduate of Irrigation and Drainage, Department of Water Engineering, College of Water and Soil, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran

2 Department of Water Engineering, College of Water and Soil, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran

3 Department of ِResearch Group of Drought and Climate Change University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran. ,Department of Water Engineering

4 Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22034/nawee.2025.486306.1116
Abstract
One of the most important indices of drought that considers soil moisture as an input parameter is the soil moisture drought (SMDI) index. Investigating the effect of climate change on agricultural drought using SMDI index in different salinity and drought stresses with the help of Aqua Crop model in the basic period (2005-1975) and upcoming (2025-2055) in Birjand region is the aim of this study. To predict precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature in the upcoming period in the study area of five climate models IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM, CSIRO-MK3.6, HADGEM2-ES, GFDL-ESM2M under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios ,were used, among which the CSIRO-MK3.6 model was selected as the best model using weighting method and performance criteria. The results showed that the amount of precipitation forecast for the upcoming period compared to the base period decreased under both emission scenarios and the annual average maximum and minimum temperature in the future period increased compared to the base period under both emission scenarios. The severity of the SMDI drought index for rainfed treatment in the upcoming period is lower in both scenarios than in other treatments, indicating the need for rainfed recovery in the region. The results also showed that all treatments, on average, would have a lower degree of drought in the RCP8.5 scenario in the upcoming period than in the RCP4.5 emission scenario

Keywords

AOGCM Models
Aqua Crop
Climate Change
Drought
SMDI Index
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Journal of New Approaches in Water Engineering and Environment
Volume 4, Issue 1
March 2025
Pages 72-84

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