Journal of New Approaches in Water Engineering and Environment
Scientific Journal

The effect of climate change on sorghum's yield (Case Study: Zanjan province Abhar Plain)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Zabihollah Khani Temeliyeh 1
Rasoul Mirabbasi 2
َAzim Shirdeli 3
Shahab Shadmehr 4
Sakineh Khani Temeliyeh 5
Parisa Fakhimi 6

1 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran. Organization of Agricultural Research and Natural Resources of Khuzestan Province, Khuzestan, Iran.

2 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran.

3 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran

4 Deputy Director of Forestry Affairs, General Directorate of Natural Resources, Khuzestan Province, Khuzestan, Iran.

5 Researcher in Meteorology from the University of Zanjan - Expert from Hazrat Masoumeh University Qom, Qom, Iran.

6 Department of Water Engineering, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22034/nawee.2025.508033.1141
Abstract
Temperature is one of the factors affecting plant growth. Thus, future temperature trends in Abhar region affected by climate change during future periods is evaluated and compared with the period of observation.The study observation period is considered as 1986-2010 AD, near horizon 2011-2045, the average horizon 2046-2079 and 2080-2100 horizon in the current study. LARS-WG software is used in NorESM1-M model and RCP8.5,RCP4.5 concentration pathway scenarios in order to downscale the results of general atmosphere circulation's simulation model. Furthermore, the scenario file is generated in this study. According to the obtained results, the highest yield is cultivated on 27 September with 4.64 tons per hectare and the lowest yield is produced on 16 September with 0.65 tons per hectare. If we change the traditional cultivation time from 7 Octoer to 27 September , a growth of 0.15 tons per hectare will be seen. The highest yield will be in the far horizon with 6.39 tons per hectare on the 27 of October. Also, in the future horizons, the yield of sorghum will increase. which can be considered to be involved in the C3 photosynthetic system of this plant. The average annual temperature during the near, middle and far future horizons will be 0.26, 0.72 and 1.46 degrees Celsius respectively. Also, the time series of rainfall indicates that the amount of rainfall in November increased to 37.61 mm and has an upward trend at the 95% confidence level and its decrease to 32.25 mm in March at the same confidence level.is.

Keywords

Climate Change
Temperature
Simulation
AquaCrop
Abhar
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Journal of New Approaches in Water Engineering and Environment
Volume 4, Issue 2
Special Issue: Guest Editor: Prof. Ozgur Kisi
September 2025
Pages 107-130

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